Bills to win -170
Moneyline · Bills at Vikings
Mon Nov 9 · 5:15 PM PT
Edge Neutral · Risk check ⚠ 2nd Opinion Injury news
NFL · updated Mon Nov 9
NFL picks this week, every one graded
Quick answerAs of Mon Nov 9, 2 open NFL picks. Record so far: 13-9 (59% of decided picks won) over 22 graded picks, beating the closing line on 27% of them. Game calls this season: winner right 92%, spread 62%, over/under 69%.
Open picks
Bills -3 -115
Spread · Bills at Vikings
Mon Nov 9 · 5:15 PM PT
Edge Neutral · Risk check ⚠ 2nd Opinion Injury news
Open the live NFL cardFull track record
How these picks have done
Picks logged
24
2 still open
Record
13-9
22 graded (W-L)
Won
59%
of decided picks
Beat the close
27%
of 22 picks checked
Units
-0.7
1 unit a pick at the logged price
Latest results
| Result | Pick | Final | Closing line | Line value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOST | Buccaneers to win +220 Moneyline · Buccaneers at Bears | 24-27 | +235 | -8.3% |
| WON | Buccaneers +6 -110 Spread · Buccaneers at Bears | 24-27 | +6.5 (-108) | -0.5 pts |
| WON | Seahawks -2.5 Teaser leg · Cardinals at Seahawks | 3-17 | -9.5 (-105) | +1.0 pts |
| WON | Packers to win +142 Moneyline · Packers at Patriots | 45-27 | +154 | -8.6% |
| WON | Packers +3.5 -118 Spread · Packers at Patriots | 45-27 | +3 (+100) | +0.5 pts |
| LOST | Cardinals to win +350 Moneyline · Cardinals at Seahawks | 3-17 | +370 | -8.1% |
| LOST | Cardinals +8.5 -110 Spread · Cardinals at Seahawks | 3-17 | +9.5 (-115) | -1.0 pts |
| LOST | Chargers to win +200 Moneyline · Texans at Chargers | 44-22 | +190 | -0.7% |
| LOST | Chargers +6 -112 Spread · Texans at Chargers | 44-22 | +5.5 (-112) | +0.5 pts |
| WON | Saints to win -166 Moneyline · Browns at Saints | 22-23 | -230 | +7.2% |
| LOST | Saints -3 -120 Spread · Browns at Saints | 22-23 | -4.5 (-115) | +1.5 pts |
| WON | Rams to win -238 Moneyline · Rams at Commanders | 20-13 | -225 | -5.8% |
Line value compares the number we logged with the closing line, the last number before the game. Beating it over many picks is the more honest sign of skill; a win-loss record over a few dozen picks is mostly luck.
Game calls
Every game gets three calls (winner, spread, over/under), even games with no pick. They are graded on the final score; they are not bets.
| Week | Winner | Spread | Over/under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 9 | 12 of 13 (92%) | 8 of 13 (62%) | 9 of 13 (69%) |
Yardsticks: favorites won 92% of these games, so picking every favorite would have called the winner that often; spreads and totals need about 52.4% to break even at usual prices.
Questions
How are the NFL picks made?
A computer program compares its own numbers for each game with the DraftKings line, using rules that were written down and dated before they made a single pick. A pick is logged only when the gap is big enough; Strong means a bigger gap than Neutral. Each card names one Top pick and a 2nd choice by a fixed rule.
How have the NFL picks done so far?
13-9 over 22 graded picks (59% of decided picks won), and 27% beat the closing line. Every pick stays on the record, losses included.
Should I bet on these picks?
This site is research and entertainment for adults 21 and older, not advice. Most bets lose money, no method here has a proven edge over the betting market, and sports betting is not legal everywhere. If you bet, only bet what you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET (national helpline) or 1-800-GAMBLER (California).
Where do the lines come from?
The DraftKings lines as ESPN shows them on its public pages, saved by our own recorder every 15 minutes. Lines move, so always check the current price.