Kentucky +5.5 -110
Spread · Kansas at Kentucky
Tue Nov 10 · 6:30 PM PT
Edge Neutral · Risk check ✓ Clear Another model disagrees
College Basketball · updated Mon Nov 9
College Basketball picks this week, every one graded
Quick answerAs of Mon Nov 9, 4 open college basketball picks; our Top pick is Kentucky +5.5 (spread, Kansas at Kentucky). Record so far: 2-4 (33% of decided picks won) over 6 graded picks, beating the closing line on 33% of them. Game calls this season: winner right 75%, spread 25%, over/under 50%.
Open picks
Duke to win -278
Moneyline · Michigan State at Duke
Tue Nov 10 · 4:00 PM PT
Edge Neutral · Risk check ✓ Clear Nothing found against it
Memphis to win +1100
Moneyline · Memphis at Vanderbilt
Tue Nov 10 · 4:15 PM PT
Edge Neutral · Risk check ⚠ 2nd Opinion Another model disagrees
Kentucky to win +225
Moneyline · Kansas at Kentucky
Tue Nov 10 · 6:30 PM PT
Edge Neutral · Risk check ✓ Clear Nothing found against it
Open the live College Basketball cardFull track record
How these picks have done
Picks logged
10
4 still open
Record
2-4
6 graded (W-L)
Won
33%
of decided picks
Beat the close
33%
of 6 picks checked
Units
-2.1
1 unit a pick at the logged price
Latest results
| Result | Pick | Final | Closing line | Line value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOST | Under 156.5 -108 Total · USC at Wichita State | 86-93 | 156.5 (-112) | +0.0 pts |
| LOST | USC to win -245 Moneyline · USC at Wichita State | 86-93 | +210 | -56.5% |
| WON | California +19.5 -108 Spread · Houston at California | 68-86 | -19.5 (-115) | +39.0 pts |
| WON | Over 160.5 -108 Total · Arkansas at Virginia | 72-91 | 162.5 (-110) | +2.0 pts |
| LOST | Arkansas to win +110 Moneyline · Arkansas at Virginia | 72-91 | +154 | -20.7% |
| LOST | Arkansas +2.5 -110 Spread · Arkansas at Virginia | 72-91 | +4.5 (-115) | -2.0 pts |
Line value compares the number we logged with the closing line, the last number before the game. Beating it over many picks is the more honest sign of skill; a win-loss record over a few dozen picks is mostly luck.
Game calls
Every game gets three calls (winner, spread, over/under), even games with no pick. They are graded on the final score; they are not bets.
| Week | Winner | Spread | Over/under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2-8 | 3 of 4 (75%) | 1 of 4 (25%) | 2 of 4 (50%) |
Yardsticks: favorites won 100% of these games, so picking every favorite would have called the winner that often; spreads and totals need about 52.4% to break even at usual prices.
Questions
How are the college basketball picks made?
A computer program compares its own numbers for each game with the DraftKings line, using rules that were written down and dated before they made a single pick. A pick is logged only when the gap is big enough; Strong means a bigger gap than Neutral. Each card names one Top pick and a 2nd choice by a fixed rule.
How have the college basketball picks done so far?
2-4 over 6 graded picks (33% of decided picks won), and 33% beat the closing line. Every pick stays on the record, losses included.
Should I bet on these picks?
This site is research and entertainment for adults 21 and older, not advice. Most bets lose money, no method here has a proven edge over the betting market, and sports betting is not legal everywhere. If you bet, only bet what you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET (national helpline) or 1-800-GAMBLER (California).
Where do the lines come from?
The DraftKings lines as ESPN shows them on its public pages, saved by our own recorder every 15 minutes. Lines move, so always check the current price.