Spurs to win -243
Moneyline · Spurs at Suns
Mon Nov 9 · 6:00 PM PT
Edge Neutral · Risk check ⛔ RED FLAG Another model disagrees
NBA · updated Mon Nov 9
NBA picks this week, every one graded
Quick answerAs of Mon Nov 9, 18 open NBA picks; our Top pick is Spurs to win (moneyline, Spurs at Suns). Record so far: 9-11 (45% of decided picks won) over 20 graded picks, beating the closing line on 35% of them. Game calls this season: winner right 71%, spread 71%, over/under 43%.
Open picks
76ers +1.5 -119
Spread · Celtics at 76ers
Tue Nov 10 · 5:00 PM PT
Edge Neutral · Risk check ✓ Clear Nothing found against it
Over 222.5 -110
Total · Nuggets at Rockets
Mon Nov 9 · 5:30 PM PT
Edge Neutral · Risk check ⛔ RED FLAG Line moved against us
Wizards to win +394
Moneyline · Wizards at Pistons
Mon Nov 9 · 4:00 PM PT
Edge Neutral · Risk check ⛔ RED FLAG Another model disagrees
Over 214.5 -112
Total · Cavaliers at Hornets
Mon Nov 9 · 4:00 PM PT
Edge Neutral · Risk check ⚠ 2nd Opinion Line moved against us
Hawks to win -117
Moneyline · Lakers at Hawks
Mon Nov 9 · 4:00 PM PT
Edge Neutral · Risk check ⛔ RED FLAG Line moved against us
Over 225.5 -105
Total · Grizzlies at Raptors
Mon Nov 9 · 4:30 PM PT
Edge Neutral · Risk check ⛔ RED FLAG Line moved against us
Grizzlies to win +131
Moneyline · Grizzlies at Raptors
Mon Nov 9 · 4:30 PM PT
Edge Neutral · Risk check ⛔ RED FLAG Line moved against us
Grizzlies +3.5 -119
Spread · Grizzlies at Raptors
Mon Nov 9 · 4:30 PM PT
Edge Neutral · Risk check ⛔ RED FLAG Line moved against us
Under 227.5 -115
Total · Pacers at Mavericks
Mon Nov 9 · 5:00 PM PT
Edge Neutral · Risk check ⛔ RED FLAG Line moved against us
Mavericks to win -155
Moneyline · Pacers at Mavericks
Mon Nov 9 · 5:00 PM PT
Edge Strong · Risk check ✓ Clear Nothing found against it
Mavericks -3.5 -107
Spread · Pacers at Mavericks
Mon Nov 9 · 5:00 PM PT
Edge Strong · Risk check ✓ Clear Nothing found against it
Nuggets to win +237
Moneyline · Nuggets at Rockets
Mon Nov 9 · 5:30 PM PT
Edge Strong · Risk check ✓ Clear Nothing found against it
Nuggets +8.5 -115
Spread · Nuggets at Rockets
Mon Nov 9 · 5:30 PM PT
Edge Strong · Risk check ✓ Clear Nothing found against it
Pelicans to win +312
Moneyline · Pelicans at Warriors
Mon Nov 9 · 7:00 PM PT
Edge Neutral · Risk check ⛔ RED FLAG Line moved against us
Pelicans +9.5 -110
Spread · Pelicans at Warriors
Mon Nov 9 · 7:00 PM PT
Edge Neutral · Risk check ⛔ RED FLAG Line moved against us
Over 232.5 -105
Total · Pelicans at Warriors
Mon Nov 9 · 7:00 PM PT
Edge Neutral · Risk check ⛔ RED FLAG Line moved against us
Over 215.5 -106
Total · Celtics at 76ers
Tue Nov 10 · 5:00 PM PT
Edge Neutral · Risk check ✓ Clear Nothing found against it
Open the live NBA cardFull track record
How these picks have done
Picks logged
38
18 still open
Record
9-11
20 graded (W-L)
Won
45%
of decided picks
Beat the close
35%
of 20 picks checked
Units
-4.1
1 unit a pick at the logged price
Latest results
| Result | Pick | Final | Closing line | Line value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WON | Over 230.5 -110 Total · Pelicans at Clippers | 123-139 | 226.5 (-108) | -4.0 pts |
| WON | Kings +11.5 -115 Spread · Heat at Kings | 114-108 | +11.5 (-105) | +0.0 pts |
| WON | Heat to win -316 Moneyline · Heat at Kings | 114-108 | -574 | +7.7% |
| LOST | Over 219.5 -113 Total · Celtics at Bucks | 117-97 | 222.5 (-105) | +3.0 pts |
| LOST | Bucks to win +580 Moneyline · Celtics at Bucks | 117-97 | +552 | +0.2% |
| WON | Timberwolves -11.5 -114 Spread · Jazz at Timberwolves | 100-115 | -12.5 (-108) | +1.0 pts |
| LOST | Over 223.5 -106 Total · Jazz at Timberwolves | 100-115 | 222.5 (-106) | -1.0 pts |
| LOST | Pistons to win -185 Moneyline · Lakers at Pistons | 121-116 | -277 | +8.7% |
| WON | Over 217.5 -110 Total · Lakers at Pistons | 121-116 | 216.5 (-113) | -1.0 pts |
| LOST | Under 238.5 -113 Total · 76ers at Bulls | 127-121 | 238.5 (-105) | +0.0 pts |
| WON | 76ers to win -333 Moneyline · 76ers at Bulls | 127-121 | -423 | +1.0% |
| WON | Under 229.5 -111 Total · Spurs at Trail Blazers | 125-103 | 228.5 (-110) | +1.0 pts |
Line value compares the number we logged with the closing line, the last number before the game. Beating it over many picks is the more honest sign of skill; a win-loss record over a few dozen picks is mostly luck.
Game calls
Every game gets three calls (winner, spread, over/under), even games with no pick. They are graded on the final score; they are not bets.
| Week | Winner | Spread | Over/under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2-8 | 5 of 7 (71%) | 5 of 7 (71%) | 3 of 7 (43%) |
Yardsticks: favorites won 71% of these games, so picking every favorite would have called the winner that often; spreads and totals need about 52.4% to break even at usual prices.
Questions
How are the NBA picks made?
A computer program compares its own numbers for each game with the DraftKings line, using rules that were written down and dated before they made a single pick. A pick is logged only when the gap is big enough; Strong means a bigger gap than Neutral. Each card names one Top pick and a 2nd choice by a fixed rule.
How have the NBA picks done so far?
9-11 over 20 graded picks (45% of decided picks won), and 35% beat the closing line. Every pick stays on the record, losses included.
Should I bet on these picks?
This site is research and entertainment for adults 21 and older, not advice. Most bets lose money, no method here has a proven edge over the betting market, and sports betting is not legal everywhere. If you bet, only bet what you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET (national helpline) or 1-800-GAMBLER (California).
Where do the lines come from?
The DraftKings lines as ESPN shows them on its public pages, saved by our own recorder every 15 minutes. Lines move, so always check the current price.